A useful thought experiment is to ask yourself, ‘If I had to place a single trade, what would it be?’. Right now my answer is short gold.
Gold is currently trading at $869.55. Broadly speaking, I reckon it will fall to $650 within 12 months, and then to $350-$450 over the next two years. I see it falling at a faster rate but not any slower. My theoretical stop is at $1075. It’s a very long-term trade idea but at least you get paid interest to hold the position.
ps – this is my last piece of useless soothsaying (for personal entertainment purposes only).
4 responses so far ↓
Camabron // 2 October, 2008 at 3:40 pm |
I’ll take the other side of the trade. Gold does well in inflationary and deflationary spirals.
Riz // 3 October, 2008 at 3:23 pm |
I’m just taking the view that gold has already done fairly well, and that the risks are now skewed to the downside.
jeff montanye // 12 October, 2009 at 8:44 am |
it’s a year later and i definitely want the other side of your trade. what were your reasons?
jeff montanye // 12 October, 2009 at 8:47 am |
p.s. i see your 2007 results. how was 2008?