Week 46 FX trading results

Trading: 0%.

Behavioural road-map score: 7 out of 10.

Well, well, my trading strategy just doesn’t seem to be delivering anymore. I seem to be averaging just under a percent or so in recent weeks (after expenses, this turns neutral or negative), and there hasn’t been a single ‘big score’ in a very long time. I’m going to carry on for a while because I don’t know how to do anything else, but I do not have high hopes. I really didn’t expect things to fizzle out the way they have, especially after all the progress on the behavioural side, but I am at least happy that I didn’t lose money hand-over-fist in the process of discovering that I was losing my edge. Overall, it’s been an upward journey, albeit one of many twists and turns.

I’ll keep posting my results on a weekly basis, but after week 50 I may switch to reporting at the end of each month.

4 responses to “Week 46 FX trading results

  1. You had mentioned you were going to change your trading style for more “lumpy” payoffs. Did you not do this?

  2. I did this moom, but the number of trades I put on should have stayed the same. Instead, this number of trades has fallen quite dramatically. In turn, this means the probability of achieving a big pay-off is severely reduced. Even if I revert to my old trading style, profits would be quite minimal if conditions stay the same. But hey, at least it hasn’t cost me a Goldman Sachs 20%+ drawdown to figure out that things are not working as expected.

  3. How can you tell if this losing of edge is permanent or just a temporary thing? Not all systems work all the time but if they’re based on a sound idea they should survive ok, or so I think/wish. Maybe time to do some more R&D and get the creative juices going on new setups? Hope it works out well for you.

  4. Hi Eyal, I suppose you can never tell. Nearly every strategy will produce ebbs and flows as the market mutates and evolves, but we have to look through this when assessing the worthiness of a strategy, yet all we can really do is make an educated guess based on a limited number of observations, but also taking into account one’s capacity to ride out the dips. On that note, the full-time trading epsiode of my life seems to be nearing a natural close.

    Thanks for the well wishes, and all the best.

    : )

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