The final prediction: gold will fall

A useful thought experiment is to ask yourself, ‘If I had to place a single trade, what would it be?’. Right now my answer is short gold.

Gold is currently trading at $869.55. Broadly speaking, I reckon it will fall to $650 within 12 months, and then to $350-$450 over the next two years. I see it falling at a faster rate but not any slower. My theoretical stop is at $1075. It’s a very long-term trade idea but at least you get paid interest to hold the position.

ps – this is my last piece of useless soothsaying (for personal entertainment purposes only).


7 responses to “The final prediction: gold will fall

  1. I’ll take the other side of the trade. Gold does well in inflationary and deflationary spirals.

  2. I’m just taking the view that gold has already done fairly well, and that the risks are now skewed to the downside.

  3. it’s a year later and i definitely want the other side of your trade. what were your reasons?

  4. p.s. i see your 2007 results. how was 2008?

  5. $1200 Ounce In December 2009



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