A useful thought experiment is to ask yourself, ‘If I had to place a single trade, what would it be?’. Right now my answer is short gold.
Gold is currently trading at $869.55. Broadly speaking, I reckon it will fall to $650 within 12 months, and then to $350-$450 over the next two years. I see it falling at a faster rate but not any slower. My theoretical stop is at $1075. It’s a very long-term trade idea but at least you get paid interest to hold the position.
ps – this is my last piece of useless soothsaying (for personal entertainment purposes only).